One of the most annoying cavalier bets of financial advisers is to revive proper predictions and play down false predictions – regardless of whether the mental effusions come from a blog entry typed on the home computer or from the ivory towers of Wall Street.
Take, for example, Dennis Gartman. The members of ZeroHedge make fun of his mistakes without a trace, laugh at him for every single investment error, and mock himself about any misfortune by tearing his comments out of context.
Let us not forget that his newsletter “The Gartman Letter” focuses on the commodity markets and is looking for subscribers to “long-term trades” that will last as long as they a) work, b) how the markets are open or C) until you have to go to the toilet. So if Gartman says that he’s shattering stocks, that means he’s already short and the position has been closed either by triggering a stop-loss order or by a profitable trade.
Nevertheless, he is ridiculed as soon as he opens his mouth. I find him, however, very wortgewandt and honestly quite entertaining, because he brings a little wit and self-irony into the world of TV financial news. It is far more pleasant to listen to Gartman than to the megalomaniac Canadian moneybag Kevin O’Leary (also known from the reality show “Shark Tank”) or most Goldbugs.
In other words, everything is relative. When I listen to podcasts and interviews from the “experts” in our industry or read their comments, I always try to ignore features like facial expressions, expressions, or generous make-up, and focus on the real message. You should also do the same when you read my posts. A little bit of humor here and there does not qualify me as a “guru”. No one knows better than myself, my wife, my banker, my dog (if I ever should find him again).
When I wrote down my forecasts for the year 2016, I did so with an overwhelming feeling of relief. I was glad that the most stifling, depressing, and depressing bearish in the history of the precious metal markets had come to an end, and on the 4th of December I wrote an article on gold and the gold companies in which I struck the table with both fists, (Which were previously closed three times by the triggering of stop-loss orders and I made big losses), I am very much looking forward to the courses again Above crawl. ”
On January 5, 2016, I canceled my stop-loss order at -10%, and on January 19, I watched the GDXJ fall to a new low, although the gold price quoted 30 dollars above its December low. In an act of frustration and remorse, I decided not to reject my GDXJ position. Instead, I doubled them with the support of ample amounts of painkillers and good bourbon on the same day.
At the end of the month, I held a core position on the long side, which I had bought at $ 19.32 or $ 17.38 for the leveraged papers. On February 19, the Gold Stock Index closed at $ 23.44. I resisted the temptation to brood with my success and decided to stay still, while all the “Goldgurus” jumped back onto the moving train, claiming they had recognized the ground correctly.
The reason why I resist the testosterone-increasing temptation of media admiration is simple: this kind of antiseceration is indeed balm for the injured soul, but unfolds a similar effect as Frodo’s magical ring. Although he has saved his life several times, he could equally well have the poor Hobbit spend his days in the best Gollum manner in an underground cave, addicted to the power of the ring.
Even though my gold portfolio ended in 2015 had a great year, the performance would have been even better if I had followed my own advice and backed up in July when the big speculators at COMEX held more than 340,000 long contracts and the commercials Equally short short position. However, I did not do this and therefore suffered some setbacks in the second half of 2016 – no bad setbacks, but still big enough to annoy me. The lesson I learned in 2016: trust the commercials – they do not make any losses. (And listen to your own advice.)
2016 is now over and it is not easy to formulate a coherent investment strategy for 2017 because there are two fundamental problems:
1. The questions around the manipulations, fraud and interferences in the market situation were not clarified.
2. Donald Trump.
The two problems are by no means mutually exclusive as Donald John Trump and his team undoubtedly belong to the traditional, billiard-heavy creatures from the swamp, which he is supposed to dry up.
If you followed the election campaign in the US, like you, you are likely to suffer from the wrong notion that the Cabinet of the future president is slowly being filled with people who are going to “dry the swamp.” This is obviously not the case. For point 1, this means that there are above all false hopes and doubtful intentions in connection with the “questions about manipulations, fraud and interferences with the market.” There is also the risk that the collective profits on the stock markets will be destroyed again and the volatility of the currency rates will increase.
Only when we become aware of the fact that all price gains in 2016 were only the product of massive interventions by Wall Street, carried out according to the wishes of the elite, we, the ignorant people, will recognize the true situation and not us More of the economic and financial comments on CNN, CNBC, BBC or CBC deceive.
In the next few paragraphs I will try to describe the current state of global capital markets and the prevailing confusion in detail.
It is an exaggerated understatement to write that the money markets of this world are nowadays “ruled by confusion”. While global debt has risen in relation to the gross product, the managers in Heerscharen have rushed to the stock markets to find a reasonable substitute for their investment in bonds.